The theme for this chapter is that the future is not a point, but actually is a range. In order to anticipate the future we need to bookend it by considering different outcomes from very bad to very good. The idea is that when we anticipate adversity and success we are better prepared for the results. When you think about it, there is much to be said for this approach. As in prior chapters numerous examples are provided to help drive home the point.
The brothers refer to preparing for the lower end of the bookend spectrum as a “premortem”. Another way of viewing this is to ask the question: “It’s a year from now and our decision has totally failed. Why?”
To anticipate the upper end of the spectrum they recommend conducting a “preparade”. They posit that “It’s a year from now and our decision was wildly successful. Will we be ready for that level of success?”
They recommend building in a safety factor for events that can’t be foreseen. They use the example of elevator cables being 11 times stronger than needed as an example.
Can you think of instances in your experience where conducting premortems and preparades would have placed you or your credit union in a better position to deal with the results? If you haven’t done this before, would you consider it a viable exercise?